نشر في باب نات يوم 24 - 06 - 2025

بقلم ريم بالخذيري
العلاقة بين إيران من جهة و الولايات المتحدة و إسرائيل من جهة أخرى غامضة غموض الدهاء السياسي الفارسي ومتقلبة تقلب العقيدة الأمريكية القائمة على الأولوية لمصالحها و الشخصية اليهودية المركبة و المعقّدة. ورغم التوتر الواضح في هذه العلاقات التي كانت تنبأ كل مرّة باندلاع حرب شاملة، يتمّ التراجع عنها في آخر لحظة و الاكتفاء بما تحقّق من المناوشات.
وشهدت السنوات الأخيرة نوعًا من هذه المواجهات المحدودة كان أهمها اغتيال قائد فيلق القدس الإيراني قاسم سليماني في جانفي 2020، و الذي ردّت عليه طهران بشكل محدود بعد أيام، عبر قصف صاروخي استهدف قاعدتين أمريكيتين في العراق (عين الأسد وأربيل)، دون تسجيل قتلى، في ما فُهم منه ك"رد مدروس لحفظ ماء الوجه".
وبينما حبست المنطقة أنفاسها توقعًا لحرب إقليمية بعد قصف الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية للمنشأة النووية فوردو، ردّت عليه إيران بقصف محتشم و متفق عليه (مثلما أكد ذلك ترامب) لقواعد عسكرية أمريكية في الخليج، فوجئ العالم بتراجع واشنطن عن المواجهة الشاملة وإعلان الرئيس الأمريكي أن بلاده لن تردّ على هذه الهجمات و أنه سيتم وقف إطلاق النار في المنطقة.
فماذا حدث؟ ولماذا بدأت أمريكا أسرع و أقصر حرب لها و أنهتها؟
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1. اختبار قوة وتحريك الشطرنج الإقليمي
لم تكن الضربة الأمريكية مجرد رد فعل على استفزازات إيرانية، بل كانت وفق محللين نوعًا من "جس نبض" للقوى في المنطقة، لاختبار مدى جاهزية الحلفاء والخصوم. يقول المحلل العسكري الأمريكي ديفيد شينكر:
"الولايات المتحدة أرادت معرفة حدود رد الفعل الروسي والصيني والإيراني قبل الإقدام على أي خطوة شاملة."
وقد أظهرت البراغماتية الإيرانية قدرة طهران على امتصاص الضربة، مع توجيه رد محسوب عبر قصف قاعدتين أمريكيتين في العراق دون وقوع قتلى، ما فتح الباب أمام "حفظ ماء الوجه" لكلا الطرفين.
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2. طموح ترامب الشخصي
لا يمكن تجاهل أن الرئيس الأمريكي السابق دونالد ترامب كان يبحث عن نصر خارجي يُضاف إلى سجله، وربما كان يحلم بجائزة نوبل للسلام من خلال التمهيد لحرب ثم تقديم نفسه كصانع سلام، كما فعل في ملف التطبيع بين إسرائيل ودول عربية.
صرّح ترامب بعد اغتيال سليماني:
"لقد أنهينا تهديدًا كان يجب التعامل معه منذ وقت طويل."
لكنه أضاف بعد أيام:
"لا نسعى للحرب، بل للسلام... لكن بشروطنا."
وهي رسالة ذات وجهين: تصعيد وتحكّم.
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3. إضعاف لا إسقاط: إيران شوكة لا تُقتلع
رغم اللهجة العدائية، لم تسعَ واشنطن لتدمير النظام الإيراني بالكامل، بل لاستخدامه كعامل موازنة في الخليج. فوجود إيران المزعجة يخدم عدة أغراض:
* إبقاء دول الخليج في حالة اعتماد أمني على واشنطن.
* تبرير التواجد العسكري الأمريكي.
* منع تصاعد مشاريع إقليمية بديلة.
يقول الباحث في العلاقات الدولية فواز جرجس:
"إيران تُستخدم كأداة ضغط مستمرة، وجودها مقلق لكنه مفيد لصانع القرار الأمريكي."
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4. الخريطة الجيوسياسية والضغط الروسي الصيني
مع تصاعد النفوذ الروسي في سوريا، وتقدم الصين اقتصاديًا واستراتيجيًا، بات من الواضح أن أي حرب جديدة ستفتح الباب لتدخلات خارجية لا يمكن السيطرة عليها.
الكرملين حذّر واشنطن من "اللعب بالنار"، بينما رأت بكين في الحرب تهديدًا لمصالحها النفطية والاستثمارية في الشرق الأوسط.
إن تراجع الولايات المتحدة عن التصعيد العسكري ضد إيران لم يكن نابعًا من ضعف أو تردد، بل من حسابات استراتيجية دقيقة تأخذ في الحسبان توازن القوى الدولي، والواقع المعقد للمنطقة، والمكاسب الممكنة دون تكلفة كبرى.
لقد أرادت واشنطن إيصال رسالة، واختبار مواقف الخصوم، وتأكيد الهيمنة، دون الدخول في مستنقع جديد. أما إيران، فقد ردّت ضمن حدود مرسومة، بما يؤكد أن البراغماتية، لا العقيدة، هي من يحكم التحركات خلف الستار.
وقد أكد ذلك قائد الحرس الثوري:
"نحن نعرف متى نرد، وأين نرد، وكيف نرد... لكننا لا نمنح أعداءنا ما يتمنونه من فوضى."
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ماذا بعد وقف إطلاق النار؟
رغم أن الحرب لم تقع رسميًا، فإن ما حدث بين واشنطن وطهران في السنوات الأخيرة هو أقرب إلى "حرب باردة قصيرة" أو "صراع تحت السيطرة". والسؤال الآن:
ما السيناريوهات المقبلة في حال استمرار حالة اللاسلم واللاحرب؟
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1. تثبيت قواعد الاشتباك الجديدة
قد يتم تثبيت نمط جديد من "الردع المتبادل المحدود"، حيث تضرب إيران عبر وكلائها وترد أمريكا بوسائل سيبرانية أو عبر العقوبات، لكن دون الدخول في مواجهة مفتوحة. هذه الحالة تضمن لكل طرف الحفاظ على صورته دون كسر التوازن.
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2. إعادة التفاوض النووي بشروط جديدة
مع تغير الإدارات الأمريكية، قد تُطرح مفاوضات نووية جديدة، لكن هذه المرة بشروط أكثر صرامة من واشنطن، ومقابل تنازلات اقتصادية أكبر لطهران.
وهنا ستظهر البراغماتية الإيرانية مجددًا في قدرتها على تقديم ما يكفي للبقاء، دون أن تخسر ورقة الردع.
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3. تصعيد عبر وكلاء: لبنان، اليمن، العراق
بدلًا من مواجهة مباشرة، من المرجح أن تتحول ساحة الصراع إلى دول الأطراف:
* في لبنان: حزب الله يحتفظ بخيارات ضغط ضد إسرائيل.
* في اليمن: الحوثيون يهددون الممرات البحرية.
* في العراق: المليشيات تشكّل ورقة مساومة بيد طهران.
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4. دخول لاعبين جدد على خط التوازن
الصين وروسيا لن تكتفيا بالتحذير، بل ستزيدان من حضورهما الأمني والاقتصادي في المنطقة.
هذا قد يدفع أمريكا إلى إعادة تموضع أو بناء تحالفات جديدة، خاصة مع دول الخليج المأزومة أمنيًا.
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5. احتمال تفجّر المواجهة بفعل خطأ تكتيكي
تبقى دائمًا إمكانية نشوب حرب غير محسوبة، بسبب:
* "خطأ ميداني"
* عملية اغتيال
* هجوم كبير
وهذا السيناريو، رغم كونه غير مرجح حاليًا، إلا أنه وارد بسبب هشاشة التوازنات.
ما بين لهجة الحرب وقرار التراجع، تقف الولايات المتحدة على خيط رفيع بين الهيمنة والانكفاء.
أما إيران، فهي تلعب لعبة الوقت، وتعتمد على دهاء سياسي تراكمي منذ أربعة عقود.
ما نشهده ليس نهاية مرحلة، بل إعادة ترسيم لقواعد اللعبة في الشرق الأوسط.
وبينما تسعى أمريكا للحفاظ على مصالحها بأقل كلفة ممكنة، تبقى المنطقة مرشحة للاشتعال في أي لحظة.
إنه سلام هش، قائم على الخوف لا على التفاهم.
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